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Are we at a Market Bottom?

I found this spread sheet on Secular Bear markets and Cyclical Bear Markets. You know that 54 of the last 72 years have resulted in U.S, stocks going UP. What this means is that only 25% of calendar years since 1950 have resulted in lower prices. The S&P 500 is down 24.52% since January 4, 2022. What I think is that we are in a Cyclical Bear market within a Secular Bull market which lasts about 20 years. After the two secular bear markets in the 1930s/1940s and the 1970s, the ensuing secular bull markets lasted roughly two decades AFTER the S&P 500 broke out above its bear market highs.


Look at this picture below showing how we broke to a new high in about 2013 and the Secular Bull market lasts about 20 years. Looks to me we have until about 2033 for this run to be over and this is just a Cyclical bear market at the moment.


Since 1950 there were 13 of them and 10 turned out to be fairly short lived cyclical bear markets (more common) that averaged 27.38% declines, while the other 3 were longer-term secular bear markets (less common) that averaged 52.71% declines.



The S&P 500 has fallen 24.52%, this puts it at the 9th worst bear market since 1950. I think that we could be very close to a bottom in this market. I know many would not agree with me, but this is just my opinion. Lets wait and see :).



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